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en Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: Dynamic surface storage and channel roughness -
Modificado el valor del campo
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del recurso Distribución HTML a2026-06-25
(anteriormente2026-06-23
) en Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: Dynamic surface storage and channel roughness
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| 100 | property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff | 110 | property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff | ||
| 101 | generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial | 111 | generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial | ||
| 102 | and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by | 112 | and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by | ||
| 103 | physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great | 113 | physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great | ||
| 104 | uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing | 114 | uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing | ||
| 105 | models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at | 115 | models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at | ||
| 106 | the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological | 116 | the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological | ||
| 107 | model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically | 117 | model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically | ||
| 108 | considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we | 118 | considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we | ||
| 109 | show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations | 119 | show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations | ||
| 110 | originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm | 120 | originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm | ||
| 111 | event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model | 121 | event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model | ||
| 112 | these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two | 122 | these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two | ||
| 113 | relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression | 123 | relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression | ||
| 114 | storage, and roughness coefficient\n in channels. In the final (a | 124 | storage, and roughness coefficient\n in channels. In the final (a | ||
| 115 | posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both | 125 | posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both | ||
| 116 | time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective | 126 | time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective | ||
| 117 | storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels | 127 | storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels | ||
| 118 | and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albuj\u00f3n | 128 | and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albuj\u00f3n | ||
| 119 | watershed; 556 km2), which showed a complex multi-peak response. | 129 | watershed; 556 km2), which showed a complex multi-peak response. | ||
| 120 | First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model | 130 | First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model | ||
| 121 | with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed | 131 | with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed | ||
| 122 | parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized | 132 | parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized | ||
| 123 | likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the | 133 | likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the | ||
| 124 | improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested | 134 | improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested | ||
| 125 | hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related | 135 | hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related | ||
| 126 | parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally | 136 | parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally | ||
| 127 | broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to | 137 | broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to | ||
| 128 | analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to | 138 | analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to | ||
| 129 | attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly | 139 | attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly | ||
| 130 | different behavior", | 140 | different behavior", | ||
| 131 | "notes_translated": { | 141 | "notes_translated": { | ||
| 132 | "es": "Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and | 142 | "es": "Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and | ||
| 133 | property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff | 143 | property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff | ||
| 134 | generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial | 144 | generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial | ||
| 135 | and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by | 145 | and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by | ||
| 136 | physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great | 146 | physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great | ||
| 137 | uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing | 147 | uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing | ||
| 138 | models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at | 148 | models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at | ||
| 139 | the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological | 149 | the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological | ||
| 140 | model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically | 150 | model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically | ||
| 141 | considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we | 151 | considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we | ||
| 142 | show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations | 152 | show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations | ||
| 143 | originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm | 153 | originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm | ||
| 144 | event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model | 154 | event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model | ||
| 145 | these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two | 155 | these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two | ||
| 146 | relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression | 156 | relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression | ||
| 147 | storage, and roughness coefficient\n in channels. In the final (a | 157 | storage, and roughness coefficient\n in channels. In the final (a | ||
| 148 | posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both | 158 | posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both | ||
| 149 | time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective | 159 | time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective | ||
| 150 | storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels | 160 | storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels | ||
| 151 | and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albuj\u00f3n | 161 | and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albuj\u00f3n | ||
| 152 | watershed; 556 km2), which showed a complex multi-peak response. | 162 | watershed; 556 km2), which showed a complex multi-peak response. | ||
| 153 | First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model | 163 | First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model | ||
| 154 | with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed | 164 | with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed | ||
| 155 | parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized | 165 | parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized | ||
| 156 | likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the | 166 | likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the | ||
| 157 | improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested | 167 | improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested | ||
| 158 | hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related | 168 | hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related | ||
| 159 | parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally | 169 | parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally | ||
| 160 | broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to | 170 | broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to | ||
| 161 | analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to | 171 | analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to | ||
| 162 | attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly | 172 | attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly | ||
| 163 | different behavior" | 173 | different behavior" | ||
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