Application of an integrated catchment-lake model approach for simulating effects of climate change on lake inputs and biogeochemistry

Climate change is simultaneously affecting lakes and their catchments, resulting in altered runoff patterns in the catchment and modified mixing and biogeochemical dynamics in lakes. The effects of climate change in a catchment will eventually have an impact on the dynamics of a downstream water body as well. An integrated model would allow considering how changes in the watershed affect the lake, but coupled modelling studies are rare. In this study we integrate a catchment model (SWAT+) and a lake model (GOTM-WET) to obtain holistic predictions for Lake Erken, Sweden. Using five different global climate models, projections of climate, catchment loads and lake water quality for the mid and end of the 21st century have been obtained under two future scenarios (SSP 2-45 and SSP 5-85). Temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration will increase in the future, overall resulting in an increase in water inflow to the lake. An increasing importance of surface runoff will also have consequences on the catchment soil, hydrologic flow paths, and the input of nutrients to the lake. In the lake, water temperatures will rise, leading to increased stratification and a drop in oxygen levels. Nitrate levels are predicted to remain unchanged, while phosphate and ammonium levels increase. A coupled catchment-lake configuration such as that illustrated here allows prediction of future biogeochemical conditions of a lake, including linking land use changes to changing lake conditions, as well as eutrophication and browning studies. Since climate affects both the lake and the catchment, simulations of climate change should ideally take into account both systems.

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Fecha de creación 17-09-2024
Fecha de última modificación 17-09-2024
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Identificador de los metadatos 12858e26-6c94-537e-8464-682ec206bd56
Idioma de los metadatos Español
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Categoría temática ISO 19115 biota
Identificador alternativo DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163946
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Identificador INSPIRE ESPMITECOIEPNBMMENOR283
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Identificador geográfico Murcia
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"{\"type\": \"Polygon\", \"coordinates\": [[[-2.34, 37.38], [-0.69, 37.38], [-0.69, 38.76], [-2.34, 38.76], [-2.34, 37.38]]]}"
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  1. Science of The Total Environment
  2. Vol 885
  3. 163946
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Nombre del autor Jiménez-Navarro, I.C., Mesman,J.P., Pierson, D.,…
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